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ALI MOORE: The strategic relationship between the US and Pakistan is likely to be further tested by the killing of Osama bin Laden, by US Special Forces, so close to Islamabad.

To discuss that relationship and how the death of the al Qaeda leader might be received in Pakistan more generally we’re joined now from Washington by Dr Akbar Ahmed.

He was formerly Pakistan’s high commissioner to Britain and is currently the Ibn Khaldun Chair of Islamic Studies at the American University in Washington.

Dr Akbar Ahmed, welcome to Lateline.

DR AKBAR AHMED, FORMER PAKISTANI HIGH COMMISSIONER TO BRITAIN: Thank you.

ALI MOORE: Do you think it’s credible that the Pakistani intelligence services didn’t know that bin Laden was in their country?

DR AKBAR AHMED: Ali, I was assistant commissioner in Abbottabad many, many years ago, I was schooled there, so I know the area. That is a Cantonment area where any building being constructed has to pass through the architecture, the building, the ownership through regular bureaucratic procedures which means people would know who’s living in the building and a building that size so near the military academy would have bound to raise all kinds of suspicions, especially the kind of characters coming and going from the building.

So it is highly unlikely that the authorities didn’t know who was in that building, which raises the question if they knew about who was in the building, why, at this particular time, was this operation allowed, as it were, to proceed because I don’t believe Pakistan had no idea about the operation.

The helicopters flew from Tarbela just a couple of minutes from Abbottabad itself. The US/Pakistan intelligence officers work very closely together, share information and I feel that it was the fear of a backlash against the Pakistani government by many elements in the Pakistan population that would have come to a joint conclusion between the US and Pakistan that let’s play down the Pakistan role.

ALI MOORE: So when the Pakistani president comes out and says that in fact it was not a joint operation, you don’t believe that, you actually believe that the Pakistani authorities were informed prior to it taking place unlike what we’ve been told?

DR AKBAR AHMED: Again, put it in context, Ali. Just a few months ago the governor of the Punjab, one of the most senior figures in the country, was assassinated by some people inspired by this militancy, his own body guard. The president of Pakistan, and this governor, belonged to his party, did not go to his funeral.

That is the climate in Pakistan today. There is a climate of terror. People are being killed and assassinated. Now imagine in that environment for the president or the prime minister or the head of the army to say we planned this with the Americans, went in together and we killed Osama bin Laden.

Remember that in this commentary, and I’ve been listening to this commentary on your show, it’s often overlooked that the main targets, the main victims of al Qaeda are the Pakistanis. Something like 40,000 Pakistanis have been killed since 9/11 and the pace has increased. The victims are schoolchildren, people in mosques, worshippers in shrines, right across the board.

So it is not in Pakistan’s interest to further fuel this anger against them and therefore I suggest, and this is conjecture on my part, that the authorities would be very wary of linking any action like this too closely with the operation to kill Osama bin Laden.

ALI MOORE: At the same time though the obvious question is how long have they known he was there? The US is saying he could have been there for a considerable period of time. Certainly they expect three years so how long would you expect the Pakistani authorities to have known?

DR AKBAR AHMED: Again conjecture on my part, I was in charge of the Waziristan tribal areas where he was suspected to be hiding, and where I suspect he was hiding. Because Waziristan, of all the places in that entire region, is the most inaccessible, one of the most in the world because of the terrain, because of the people, the very tough but hostile tribes to outsiders so he could have lived for some time before being moved to Abbottabad and we know from the time line that in 2005 this house was apparently built and Osama would have occupied it.

The bigger question than how long have they known, is why now? Why now did this operation take place if he was living there for several years? And the reasons to me, again to my mind, and this is again conjecture, are not difficult to place.

Relations between the United States and Pakistan have reached a new low. It’s a very brittle, unhappy relationship. This is a crucial relationship, it’s of mutual benefit, it has a history, it has by and large a positive aspect to it, both sides stand to gain a great deal in the relationship and therefore the relationship must be maintained.

So the question is why now? And perhaps it could be that the Pakistanis felt that by giving something as big as Osama bin Laden this relationship will turn the corner and improve. It will be a better and happier relationship.

ALI MOORE: Do you think that is the most likely outcome because the other side of this is if while your conjecture is correct and the government did know about it but from the public point of view of Pakistani domestic politics did not want to tell people they knew about it, of course it’s been called by some, including the former president, a violation of sovereignty. So is there not likely to be a domestic backlash against America?

DR AKBAR AHMED: There is and there already is in the last couple of weeks this mounting anger against America has reached very, very high levels in Pakistan. It was most dramatically illustrated when the DGIS, the head of the intelligence was in Washington a couple of days ago and his main request was to tone down the drone strikes which are killing so many women and children. And as he went back and arrived in Pakistan there was a drone strike killing again women and children.

So there is a great deal of anger and I must point out that Pakistanis is by and large a very much, very much mainstream. They want stability, they don’t want violence, they’re fed up of this kind of killing. They complain often that on the one hand we’re being killed by the militants, on the other hand the drone strikes sometimes through the army action and there’s just too much violence in Pakistan today and this adds to the sense of poverty, the collapse of law and order and the general sense of despair.

So put Pakistan and Pakistan society in context when we discuss this particular development.

ALI MOORE: So let me ask you, if this was a conscious decision, do you think it was one of handing something to the Americans? Do you think it was one made by the government or by the military and indeed, who is the more powerful?

DR AKBAR AHMED: A very good question because the relationship between the military and the civilian government has always been in Pakistan history complex. For half of Pakistan’s history Pakistan has been ruled by the military. So there’s a kind of pendulum swinging between these two poles.

Political government is often weak, corrupt, incompetent and a military government is promising clean rule, stability and strong man, iconic figure. Now what we’re seeing is again that tension developing.

The military, unfortunately, have just been ousted from power a couple of years back with president Musharraf being thrown out of office and it’s too early for the military to come back and the military is not very popular precisely because it is seen by the people of Pakistan as jumping or dancing to the tune of the United States and the West and therefore it’s being accused of allying with the West against its own people, particularly the operations in the tribal areas.

So it’s a very complex, difficult situation. The United States and the West including Australia cannot afford to lose Pakistan or Afghanistan because of its geopolitical situation. Take a look on the map. To the east China, to the south India, to the west Iran, to the north Russia, you just cannot afford to lose it simply in terms of a key position on the world map and if that is the case then we need to make sure that the relationship remains as happy as possible.

ALI MOORE: Which goes back to that question of who would have, whose idea this would have been and indeed why would it have been considered necessary because while on the one hand, as you say, US-Pakistani relations have deteriorated, on the other it is patently clear to everyone that the US, Australia, all the allied forces cannot do without Pakistan?

DR AKBAR AHMED: Exactly, but this is the dilemma that the world faces dealing with Pakistan and Pakistan faces several dilemmas. It’s got to try to maintain its authority in Pakistan. These drone strikes obviously challenge that. At the same time it’s got to take on the Taliban and the militant and those militants are seeping in into the administrative structure.

So I don’t doubt that a lot of Pakistanis at the junior-most levels, including in the security services, perhaps in the army, have some sympathy for the militants and their aims because there is another aspect which is rarely discussed in this situation and that’s a kind of class war, a class confrontation taking place in Pakistan.

I’m seeing, and I’ve been there over the last several years many times, the distinction between the very rich, elite of Pakistan and the mass of Pakistan. That gap has grown incredibly large and I find the elite seem to be insensitive to the problems of the poor. They live in huge mansions, lots of servants, they seem to have a lot of money and they’ve got houses in Dubai and London and they don’t seem to really care about the well-being of the ordinary Pakistani. The ordinary Pakistani is struggling now just to survive.

So you see that Pakistan is really like a powder keg ready to explode and in the midst of all this you have the militants killing Pakistanis and the Americans and the West saying you’re not doing enough and you can see why any government would be so wary about being too overtly or publicly or visibly associated with an action like this however marginal or unpopular Osama bin Laden may be to the main stream Pakistani.

ALI MOORE: We’re going to run out of time but what do you think the ramifications are going to be of this for the US-Pakistani relationship? Do you think it will in fact strengthen that and domestically, politically what do you think the fallout will be?

DR AKBAR AHMED: Again, it’s like a bad marriage going through a bad patch but both spouses are aware the marriage must be maintained and you’re seeing Secretary Clinton made some very positive statements about Pakistan just recently after this killing of Osama bin Laden.

Both sides realise that the relationship must be maintained. In Pakistan it would be different. Osama bin Laden was a hugely symbolic figure. He wasn’t operational and the Al Qaeda elements are fragmenting into tiny groups. They’re killing and playing havoc across Pakistan. That will remain unfortunately. There will be more killings unfortunately, there will be more violence unfortunately, and Pakistan really has to get its act together.

It needs to control the law and order situation. It needs to bring mainstream Pakistanis on board and give them a sense of hope and a sense of direction because there is a sense of drifting and the army, the Pakistan army in this very special relationship with the Government because the army often believes that it is the inheritor of the destiny of Pakistan, the army is also extremely concerned. It has its fears and its traditional anxiety about India on the one border and then there’s chaos on the other border and the post-America scenario now developing in Afghanistan.

So there’s a lot on the plate of the rulers of Pakistan and they have every reason to be anxious about the coming time.

ALI MOORE: Indeed there is a lot on their plate. Dr Akbar Ahmed thank you so much for being generous and giving us interesting insights into what is a fascinating time.

DR AKBAR AHMED: Thank you and thank you for not giving me as tough a time as you give the Foreign Minister, thank you.